RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
@_everythingism @LeviTD @PhilippMarkolin All of these cases were verified. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@gregbradyTO Except it didn't "clearly originate from a lab". You got evidence of this? The most in depth research has concluded it started at a wet market. Maybe do as you always preach and look to people smarter than you.... https://t.co/iX43WqFVfs
@_everythingism @emilyakopp It wasn't just that one case. Again: https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@_everythingism @emilyakopp The earliest cases weren't even linked to the market. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
🚨 REMINDER: • The New England Journal of Medicine published an article on January 29, 2020 stating that early transmission was a "Coronavirus," (aka cold/influenza virus per Taber's Medical Encyclopedia), with a Pneumonia coinfection. • Link: https://t.co
RT @kellywind: @tgof137 @mbw61567742 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @blink64 @Rebecca21951651 @Ticklicker56 @mentju4 "Early cases point to th…
RT @kellywind: @tgof137 @mbw61567742 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @blink64 @Rebecca21951651 @Ticklicker56 @mentju4 "Early cases point to th…
@tgof137 @mbw61567742 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @blink64 @Rebecca21951651 @Ticklicker56 @mentju4 "Early cases point to the market." Except for the fact that the earliest cases were not market-linked. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
RT @kellywind: @blink64 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @Rebecca21951651 @mbw61567742 @Ticklicker56 @tgof137 @mentju4 Even the first *identifi…
RT @kellywind: @blink64 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @Rebecca21951651 @mbw61567742 @Ticklicker56 @tgof137 @mentju4 Even the first *identifi…
@blink64 @Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @Rebecca21951651 @mbw61567742 @Ticklicker56 @tgof137 @mentju4 Even the first *identified* cases were not linked to the market, tho I agree there were undetected cases before that. https://t.co/0LsT8hLB9h
@Noldoggs11 @Science54900201 @Rebecca21951651 @mbw61567742 @Ticklicker56 @blink64 @tgof137 @mentju4 Links to peer reviewed literature: https://t.co/0LsT8hLB9h
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @Rebecca21951651: @pastamarone @ewanbirney @NateSilver538 He should speak w @jbloom_lab -- https://t.co/7HZGJAdxZr
@pastamarone @ewanbirney @NateSilver538 He should speak w @jbloom_lab -- https://t.co/7HZGJAdxZr
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
RT @jbloom_lab: @alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in m…
@alchemytoday @acritschristoph Any SARS2 reads in samples anywhere from early Dec 2019 or earlier would be informative in my view. But by Jan 2020 when these Huanan market samples were collected, it is known there had been dozens of infected humans at mar
@flodebarre @_everythingism I don't know what "official" case map to use. All of them have errors/omissions. While reporting the first market cluster, they didn't even sample or include those cases in their own paper? https://t.co/0ObTjep62F
@flodebarre @_everythingism That will take a few min. I suppose Dec 8 Chen is also in dispute, but there is no way to resolve that case. Dec 10 case is more clear. https://t.co/8BA2d1cN49 https://t.co/R4fuqcImps
@brisco_0317 @blairdenholm @drclairetaylor @YouAreLobbyLud @DrCanuckMD Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard of scientific evidence. These studies have shown that masks are effective in reducing the transmission of respiratory viruses, includi
RT @EvonneTCurran: Their ref 4 No mention of aerosol, airborne or droplet Close yes that is mentioned https://t.co/GtUC5ZNMxS https://t.co/…
RT @EvonneTCurran: Their ref 4 No mention of aerosol, airborne or droplet Close yes that is mentioned https://t.co/GtUC5ZNMxS https://t.co/…
RT @EvonneTCurran: Their ref 4 No mention of aerosol, airborne or droplet Close yes that is mentioned https://t.co/GtUC5ZNMxS https://t.co/…
Their ref 4 No mention of aerosol, airborne or droplet Close yes that is mentioned https://t.co/GtUC5ZNMxS https://t.co/Mt9WFmCuUV
@JamesGWood_UNSW @CollignonPeter The first H2H cluster at the market isn't even included in the same paper it is mentioned in. How did that happen? https://t.co/pDykRNH9oo
RT @michaelzlin: Now, on to the circumstantial facts. 1. The 1st known case of SARSCoV2 disease was detected on 2019/12/8 in Wuhan, China.…
@ClimateOfGavin Without an estimate of R0, no idea whether lighter restrictions will work - and data informing that was only available after the decision to lockdown Wuhan (this paper, with results presumably known to officials a little before it was publi
@CD57227 I presume @edwardcholmes is talking about 'fallout' from this NEJM paper https://t.co/nGeSoUvnvX
7/ The onset dates mentioned across 3 papers don't match. 62M and 35M most likely have an onset +/- 3 days from the wife 62F. A similar cluster Li et al 2020 has husband and wife (49M, 48F) onset separated by just 3 days. https://t.co/MIFyFB7feB https://
@jbkinney @NicholasGladman @BenFPiercePhD Cases with mild severity were likely underascertained too. This was an area with a relatively high density of elderly. https://t.co/IdJz7SYv5k https://t.co/wsZpKi9PL3
RT @YaxueCao: Newly published analysis of ChinaCDC scientists on the first 425 lab-confirmed cases in Wuhan. According to their chart, the…
@jgharris7 @kenlipartito @Biorealism @dilanesper They didn't veer from that until the evidence it didn't come from the market started showing up here: https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ I think if they could exonerate the lab, they absolutely would.
@kenlipartito @Biorealism @jgharris7 @dilanesper Then there's the fact that the earliest documented cases were not linked to the market: https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@rogermcevilly @JamieMetzl @AntGDuarte @Bloomberg @fayeflam When the epidemiological surveillance data is “tailored” and includes a link to the HSM, it’s very likely what the conclusion will be https://t.co/c8I67bd94k https://t.co/D211wqzAZd
@kellywind @blink64 @jbkinney @MJnanostretch @mbalter @genologos @leonidkruglyak Based on admission date of Dec 29, it could be 32M from CN-WHO cluster 2.2. It could also be 41M3 mentioned in Li et al 2020. CN-WHO cluster 2.2 is mapped to a stall, although
@MichaelWorobey @acritschristoph @jbloom_lab @flodebarre Then, evidence that the earliest cases were NOT linked to the market came out. See: https://t.co/T3EugykBWp and https://t.co/OFyUcxQBfd Then, after that evidence emerged, is when we got the great
@stuartjdneil @zeynep Well, there's "known to us" vs "known to China." Isn't China refusing to give the sequences/details on some of these early cases? https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@stuartjdneil @zeynep Also relevant: https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
RT @Engineer2The: 3/ This one's a good one! 😀 Li et al didn't include the family cluster from own same paper in the onset curve. This is th…
@jaredpretender @Rebecca21951651 @MJnanostretch @AdrianJ44426152 @spectator @AliceCHughes @acritschristoph @Magda_Skipper @PeterDaszak @worobey @WHO @MarionKoopmans @TheaKFischer @profvrr @DrMikeRyan For the first market cluster they didn't sequence them,
@BexZex @Rebecca21951651 @natashaloder No, you're just misinformed. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@natashaloder @edwardcholmes It wasn't first detected there, anyway. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@stuartjdneil @MJnanostretch @TheTropaion @PatrickSSte I'm not getting it from Demaneuf. Look at Worobey's paper. The earliest cases from here are not part of the analysis. https://t.co/0LsT8hL3jJ
@TheTropaion @MJnanostretch @PatrickSSte @stuartjdneil But there's still wildlife and domesticated wildlife farms. It wouldn't have just appeared via spontaneous generation in Wuhan. They didn't have any cases among the wildlife handlers/sellers, either.
@TheTropaion @MJnanostretch @PatrickSSte @stuartjdneil LL does take all of that evidence into account, and all of the evidence is also consistent with LL. (unless you arbitrarily get rid of the earliest cases from here, like the Daszek-led 2021-era WHO t
RT @CD57227: The NEJM paper: https://t.co/IMhQtdHotm
RT @CD57227: The NEJM paper: https://t.co/IMhQtdHotm
RT @CD57227: The NEJM paper: https://t.co/IMhQtdHotm
The NEJM paper: https://t.co/IMhQtdHotm
What, another Mahjong player?
@tgof137 @Biorealism @MichaelWorobey @edwardcholmes It's not at all unusual for people's covid to be mild at first, seem to get better, and then 2 or 3 weeks later land them in the ICU. There were also the two non-market December 10 cases in the report,
@dkupiecki @DavidBahry @SashaGusevPosts @nytimes @benjmueller 1) yeah, these were newly discovered viruses 2) yes 3) is serial passage "engineering"? What if it's accidental? 4) looks like a pandemic erupted mid-research 5) which specific initial cases are
@dkupiecki @MJnanostretch What I read says it's based on some activity of the WCDC in 2019, but that could mean anything. The chart on the right here came from WCDC, btw, before the info crackdown in China, but after Gao had expressed 100% certainty it c
@JoshRosenau @LeviTD @daniel_corcos The earliest cases were not linked to the market. See: https://t.co/OFyUcxQBfd ...and: https://t.co/T3EugykBWp https://t.co/gg8MJmcUzG
@WashburneAlex @natashaloder It looks like they were genuinely 100% convinced it MUST have emerged from the market at first. But then the pre-info-crackdown hospital data ended up showing this. https://t.co/T3EugykBWp and https://t.co/OFyUcxQBfd https://
@natashaloder @WashburneAlex (2/2) But then, different evidence came out, and the information flow changed: https://t.co/727cYhapM8
@simon_gordon_ @gdemaneuf @some_feminist @harishseshadri2 This was a thing which really happened, right? https://t.co/KnPTMp4LUL And this is what had come out before those orders were issued. https://t.co/OFyUcxQBfd https://t.co/T3EugykBWp https://t.
@EckerleIsabella @StefanKluge4 This one shows Dec 8th and 10th. https://t.co/OFyUcxQBfd https://t.co/PzhZi4mF8d
@jbkinney Here's my favorite one. Some of them are discussed in same thread. https://t.co/pDykRNHHdW
RT @Engineer2The: 4/ 49M - His stall (5-7 7sth st, 6-8 6th st) sells dry goods and condiments, oil, salt, sauce and vinegar. His onset is D…
4/ 49M - His stall (5-7 7sth st, 6-8 6th st) sells dry goods and condiments, oil, salt, sauce and vinegar. His onset is Dec 12, 2019 and he plays mahjong. His wife and brother also work in the stall, while 78M stepfather stays home. https://t.co/8BA2d1cN
@alchemytoday @babarlelephant @macroliter @emmecola @jbloom_lab @m_a_martin @past_is_future @RemindMe_OfThis Intestingly, the very early stages of the Wuhan outbreak had a low R. Li et al. estimated an R of ~2.2 for the whole outbreak, but cases only reall
@JacobMSmall1 @Jason @gdemaneuf @BillyBostickson - unsafe conditions in WIV https://t.co/g7dDZpSOLh - early cases with no link to Huanan market https://t.co/AUx8LXUUsO https://t.co/TwWQpc82su
RT @Engineer2The: 4/In Li et al 2020, there is a mistake with 41M Wuchang accountant having onset as Dec 8, when his onset is in fact Dec 1…
RT @Engineer2The: 4/In Li et al 2020, there is a mistake with 41M Wuchang accountant having onset as Dec 8, when his onset is in fact Dec 1…
4/In Li et al 2020, there is a mistake with 41M Wuchang accountant having onset as Dec 8, when his onset is in fact Dec 16. This was cleared up in Chen's interview video with thepaper. Interview with thepaper: https://t.co/iGALi9QzG7 Li et al 2020 https:
RT @BenASnow: https://t.co/9DNtZM14RU study where they associate the similarities between the original SARS outbreak in China and COVID-19…
@USB_Silly 《新型冠狀病毒感染肺炎在中國武漢的初期傳播動力學》 https://t.co/7PcxxXCq1H https://t.co/dMQW05NrGu
RT @BenASnow: https://t.co/9DNtZM14RU study where they associate the similarities between the original SARS outbreak in China and COVID-19…
@AntGDuarte @EmaNymton90 This paper doesn't have the corrected Chen case from Worobey's paper. If it was corrected, the Dec 10 non-market case becomes the first case. https://t.co/4JU0paxESO
@Engineer2The @EmaNymton90 Publication date: 29 Jan. 2020 1st case onset date: 08 Dec. 2019 https://t.co/jlZgyKsK7y https://t.co/vs2TSX4VVw
@Buenrolloreturn “Casi el 80% de los pacientes con el nuevo coronavirus en Japón no han transmitido la infección a otros, independientemente del grado de sus síntomas, anunció un panel de expertos del gobierno el 2 de marzo”. https://t.co/5qQNYaIShn
@jbkinney @Superjaded13 @jaredpretender @alchemytoday @R_H_Ebright Their early studies discussed how the market was the primary focus of data collection to discover a possible zoonotic spillover (because that would, of course, be the initial assumption.) h
@KafkaVoltaire Media def. learned there are no repercussions to placing factoids in every story that are false (eg "scientists believe outbreak started in Wuhan market," disproven in Mar 2020, first cases had no connection, still vomited up by media to th
@Jorge06266221 @dulcenombre52 @mpfb72 Pues ahora que lo dices, esto es lo que iba leyendo a principios de 2020. https://t.co/XJQcU2G2B3